A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
